Monday, March 30, 2009

Interpretation of Technical Indicators

Moving Averages: A stock’s short-term trend is bullish if share price stays above the 10-day moving average, and
bearish if it stays below. The medium-term trend is positive if share price stays above the 30-day, and negative if it
remains below this average.

14-day RSI: A reading below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 is overbought. A rise above 50 with a corresponding
share price surge above the 30-day SMA should be taken as a bullish move with good short-term upside potential. A
fall below 50 and a simultaneous dip below the 30-day SMA is bearish and imply further near-term downside risk.

Bollinger Bands: Variable width bands that narrow during less volatile periods and widen during more volatile periods.
As a general rule, in a bearish trend, traders should buy when share price touches the lower band and exit when price
touches the middle band. The reverse is true in a bullish trend, ie. buy when price touches the middle band and sell
when price touches the upper band. Momentum traders will buy on price breaks above the upper band, and sell when
price breaks below the lower band. Alternatively, a sharp move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to
the other band, a useful observation when projecting price targets.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Realtive Strength Index .... RSI

RSI ocillates between 100 and 0 with a centre line 50

Note the following:-

# RSI>70 indicates overbought
# RSI<30 indicates oversold

# Get ready to sell when RSI>70, you only get ready and not sell off the very moment RSI goes above 70 because in a bullish up swing RSI may stay above 70 for quite a while and you sell when price spikes up from there.
# Get ready to buy when RSI<30. similarly you only get ready to buy when RSI goes
below 30 because in a bearish trend RSI may stay below 30 quite a while and you buy when
price spikes down from there.
(here patience is the name of the game, if price spike does not occur just sit it out and wait for other opportunities, when you miss the boat don't worry it will return again)

2. RSI divergence is interpreted the same manner like MACD divergence

3. RSI centerline cross over; when RSI come from below 50 and start to pierce above 50 (certerline) indicates a bullish trend and when RSI come from above 50 and starts to pierce below the 50 (centreline) indicates a bearish trend. This is less reliable compared to the first two above.