Monday, February 14, 2011

Petronas Chemical == Just off the starting block

The chart above is for Petronas Chemical, which is just listed in BursaMalayisa on 26th November 2010.
This counter attracts institutional investors and has so far displayed great resilience when it is traded above the institutional IPO price of RM5.20. The weaker institutional investors would have sold off at least part of their holding and the resilience may be due to the stronger institutional investors still willing to accumulate on weakness. This counter is very liquid as it has eight (8) billion shares issued. coupled with the recent IPO there is ample free floating shares ready to find stronger hands.
From the chart above there is a possibility of a temporary double top at RM6.39 and a support at RM 5.93.
Also to be noted is that it is trading within an uptrend channel. Since it is now near the lower side of the uptrend channel and near to the support of RM5.93 it maybe good and possible to buy at below RM 6 so that a profit can be made if it goes up and away from the lower channel.It may move up to challenge the double top at RM6.39. If it fails to break through RM6.39 then it should be sold, otherwise if RM6.39 is successfully penetrated it can go higher and the wisdom is to let the profit run.
Another possibility is that it may go below the support line. If this happens a stop out will have to be executed say at RM5.80
The above is just my guess.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Phases of market

Market Phases








All markets, and certainly the share market go through phases that can be identified.


You will find the four central phases of the share market to be accumulation,



distribution, expansion and contraction. I have included an example of each below:


Accumulation








Accumulation generally takes place in a low sideways trending market and also


during an uptrend. Accumulation often develops when a stock has finished a down


trend and the market has found equilibrium (similar number of buyers an sellers) At


this point there are often institutional and long term value investors that have interest


in the stock as it would often be undervalued at this time based on fundamentals.


Distribution








Distribution generally takes place in a high sideways market and also during a


downtrend. And converse to accumulation, distribution occurs when a stock has


finished an uptrend and is beginning or is now perceived to be over valued by the


institutional and long term value investors based on its fundamentals.



Often distribution happens when the stock is still in favour with the general



public/media etc which means there are still plenty of willing buyers in the market.


However the distribution phase is the worst time to be buying a stock as a downtrend


often follows.


















Note: Accumulation and expansion phases on Union Pacific weekly chart.



Expansion








Expansion occurs during an uptrend when there is disequilibrium in the market and


there are many more buyers than sellers. The share price often increases



dramatically and quickly. I have included below an example of a share during an


expansion phase. In order to profit from the expansion phase we use analysis and


theories like trend lines, Dow and Elliot wave theory.















Contraction








Contraction occurs during a downtrend when there is also disequilibrium in the


market and there are many more sellers than buyers. The share price often



decreases dramatically and quickly. I have included below an example of a share during a contraction phase